I’d like to thank you all for voting in all my Oscar polls. Even those that voted in my Young Actor Oscar Snub poll made my February and March! Now that the awards are happening tomorrow, you think I’d let you all go without my annual Oscar predictions? Think again! Once again I attempt to predict the winners. This year has been anything but predictable. Even the way in which they will show the Oscars is hard to estimate. What can I say? 2021 was the worst year ever for awards show ratings as a whole. Not just the Oscars. So they’re doing what they can to bring the ratings to a healthy number, if not back to their original stats.
Big ratings or not, film fans will still take a note in the Oscars for who wins what. They will still have their say on who deserves to win and who they feel will take it. As for me, I'm still doing predictions. My full predictions are at FTS. Here I'll just post the major categories and the more popular technical categories. So here are my predictions on who Should Win (SW) the Oscar, who Will Win (WW) and my closest threat (CT) to my winner prediction:
BEST PICTURE
SW & WW: The Power Of The Dog
CT: CODA
A lot of people will think The Power Of The Dog is this year’s Brokeback Mountain. In reality, Power is a novel from the 1960’s that inspired Annie Proulx to write her short story Brokeback Mountain which was adapted in the film we know today.
BEST DIRECTOR
SW & WW: JANE CAMPION/The Power Of The Dog
CT: KENNETH BRANAGH/Belfast
When Jane was nominated, she became the first female director to get a second Best Director nomination. She looks heavily poised to be the third-ever winner!
BEST ACTOR
SW & WW: WILL SMITH/King Richard
CT: BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH/The Power Of The Dog
For those that remember me back when I joined TSO back in 2000. I hated Will Smith. You can thank Just The Two Of Us for that! Fans of Will can thank his performance of Richard Williams for redeeming him in my eyes!
BEST ACTRESS
SW & WW: JESSICA CHASTAIN/The Eyes Of Tammy Faye
CT: NICOLE KIDMAN/Being The Ricardos
Six of the lead acting nominees this year are in performances of living people or people who existed. This category is the portrayal of Tammy Faye Bakker against the portrayal of Lucille Ball. I feel it’s Jessica Chastain’s time.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
SW & WW: TROY KOTSUR/CODA
CT: KODI SMIT-McPHEE/The Power Of The Dog
Somw of you who may have been at this site during its earlier years may remember when Kodi Smit-McPhee was a young rising talent who would continually impress. Even as he hit puberty, he would still continue impress and wouldn't lose his edge. Well chances look very good he could win tonight. He already has a Golden Globe. However he faces tough competition from deaf actor Troy Kotsur. Not surprisingly CODA is Power's biggest rival for the Best Picture award. This should make for an exciting showdown!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
SW & WW: ARIANA DEBOSE/West Side Story
CT: KIRSTEN DUNST/The Power Of The Dog
I’m no expert in Oscar trivia but I think it’s possible the role of Anita in West Side Story will become the first role to win two Oscars in two different film adaptations.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
SW & WW: KENNETH BRANAGH/Belfast
CT: PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON/Licorice Pizza
Admit it! You all enjoyed the story of Buddy (who’s actually Little Kenny Branagh) trying to live out his childhood and dream along during a time of encroaching political hostility. It’s a story that successfully blends the feelgood moments with moments that get you thinking.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
SW & WW: SIAN HEDER/CODA
CT: JANE CAMPION/The Power Of The Dog
CODA is about a 17 year-old girl who’s the only member with hearing. It’s about her learning of a talent she never knew she had. It’s about her goals and dreams conflicting with her family’s goals. It’s about deaf family members and both their fun and their hidden insecurities. Those that missed it, see it. It’s worth seeing.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
SW & WW: Encanto
CT: The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Funny when this category first arrived, Walt Disney Studios was struggling while Pixar collaborating with Disney was the one winning big. Now that Walt Disney Studios have learned how to work 3D animation, they’ve shown the can now hold their own. And Encanto is the perfect film to send that message.
BEST FILM EDITING
WW: PAMELA MARTIN/King Richard
CT: MYRON KERSTEIN and ANDREW WEISBLUM/Tick, Tick… Boom!
To think back in 2019, the Academy thought of having four Oscars in the “lesser” categories awarded without broadcast. This led to a lot of social media backlash and eventually all 24 categories were shown. This year only 17 will be broadcast and whatever social media backlash changed nothing. This might be one of the non-broadcasted categories. Will this off-screen awarding work? You be the judge.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
SW & WW: Drive My Car (Japan)
CT: The Worst Person In The World (Norway)
It almost seems like a foregone conclusion that whatever film in this category gets nominated for Best Picture is the eventual winner here. But there have been surprises in the past.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
SW & WW: HANS ZIMMER/Dune
CT: JONNY GREENWOOD/The Power Of The Dog
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
SW: “Down To Joy”/Belfast
WW: “No Time To Die”/No Time To Die
CT: “Dos Oruguitas”/Encanto
Many of you are shocked “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” isn’t nominated. Actually it isn’t even shortlisted. Oscar rules state maximum two nominees in this category. I think that’s what did it. Nevertheless it does make for an interesting battle of Encanto vs. Billie Eilish. Chances are still good for Lin-Manuel Miranda to become the latest EGOTist.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
SW & WW: Spider-Man: No Way Home
CT: Dune
Many people are expecting Dune not to win in Best Picture or Screenplay but to sweep in all of its technical categories. Spider-Man in this category is one of the few I expect to block its path.
OSCARS CHEER MOMENT
WW: Spider-Man team-up in Spider-Man: No Way Home
CT: Avengers assemble in Avengers: Endgame
Alright, so this isn’t really an official Oscar category. But I thought I’d predict the win just in case.
And there you go! Those are my predictions for this year’s Oscars. If you don’t want to tune in for the show, at least tune in to see which predictions I got right!
Jeffrey007 said:
I was actually shocked that The Power Of The Dog did not win and it is not because "Coda" is not a good movie it is just Power is better, they got it wrong.
I agree. Power Of The Dog was a better film in terms of filmmaking. The thing is its buzz went out too early and CODA knew how to take full advantage of POTD's fading Oscar buzz.